aIntensified immigration enforcement would not create more job opportunities for U.S.-born Arizonans. It would eliminate thousands of them while weakening businesses, household finances, and local economies across the state, according to a new analysis from the Immigration Research Initiative.
The analysis models the effects of ICE arresting 1% of immigrants considered most at risk in each state. In Arizona, approximately 1,700 arrests could lead to the direct loss of 1,700 workers; an additional 7,000 immigrant workers leaving employment because of fear and disruption; and the loss of approximately 11,700 jobs held by U.S.-born workers.
Altogether, more than 20,000 Arizona workers could lose employment — not because immigrant workers are taking their jobs, but because workers, businesses, and consumers are deeply connected throughout the economy.
“The idea that mass deportation would free up jobs for U.S.-born Arizonans gets the economics exactly backward,” said Joseph Palomino, director of the Arizona Center for Economic Progress. “When Arizona businesses lose workers, they produce less, serve fewer customers, and have less capacity to employ anyone. The result is fewer jobs for immigrant and U.S.-born workers alike.”
The projected losses would come as Arizona employers already face workforce challenges in industries that residents depend on, including construction, agriculture, hospitality, health care, and food services. Removing workers from these industries would make it harder to build homes, provide care, produce food, and meet consumers’ everyday needs, potentially adding pressure to the cost of living.
The consequences would also extend beyond workplaces. When workers lose jobs or withdraw from the economy because they fear detention, families have less money to spend at local stores, restaurants, and service providers. Businesses lose customers, demand declines, and additional jobs disappear.
These findings add to previous AZCenter analyses showing how immigration enforcement can disrupt schools and public services, separate Arizona families, and ripple through the state’s economy.
“Arizona cannot arrest and deport its way to a stronger economy,” Palomino said. “Policies that prevent people from working and participating in their communities would hurt employers, families, and U.S.-born workers while making the state’s workforce and affordability challenges even harder to solve.”
The full report is available from Immigration Research Initiative.
The Arizona Center for Economic Progress is a leader in advancing policies that create fairer tax codes which raise the revenue needed to invest in education, affordable housing, health care, infrastructure and other supports needed to build thriving communities and better economic opportunities for all Arizonans.
