New Billo data shows Meta ad competition rising about 40% and the cost to reach 1,000 impressions climbing roughly 18% between August and the November Black Friday peak. Brands that wait until fall to plan their campaigns enter an auction that is already crowded and expensive, with the outcome largely shaped by creative built weeks earlier. Black Friday and Cyber Monday together make up the single largest ecommerce advertising event of the year, and the brands that prepare earliest tend to capture a disproportionate share of that spending.
Billo, which connects brands with creators to produce social video ads for platforms including TikTok, Meta and YouTube, has tracked the same pattern in its own client data. Donatas Smailys, co-founder and CEO of Billo, said brands that enter Black Friday without tested creative end up paying more for weaker results, regardless of how much they spend.
“Everyone treats Black Friday as a fourth-quarter problem, so everyone ends up competing for the same ad space at the same time,” Smailys said. “Brands that create their ads early and test them in August get better results than brands that wait until October or November. By the time November comes, the brands that tested early already know what works, while the brands that waited are launching untested ads during the most expensive weeks of the year.”
September and October are when brands learn which ads actually convert, and that testing takes weeks. August gives brands exactly enough time to brief creators, film several options, and get results back before Black Friday begins.
“You don’t need a media budget to find out if an ad works,” Smailys said. “In August, we tell our clients to post a few short variants organically, each with a different hook and a different creator. A small, specific audience responds within days, and that tells you which version actually lands. The trick is picking the right audience for that test: people who already care about the product. Once you know what they respond to, you know exactly what to put the budget behind in November.”
Brands that follow this approach typically produce three to five short variants per product, each testing a different angle: a different opening line, a different creator, or a different pain point. The variants that perform best organically become the ads brands scale with paid budget once Q4 begins.
