Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught? The authors offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament.
Title: Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction
Authors: Philip E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner