Report: Home Inventory Peaks and Competition Eases Mid-October

inbusinessPHX.com

The best time to buy a home in 2025 is fast approaching. According to the Realtor.com 2025 Best Time to Buy Report, the week of October 12–18 will be the year’s sweet spot for home shoppers, with a rare combination of higher inventory (32.6% more active listings from the start of the year), lower prices (a potential savings of $15,000), and less competition (30.6% lower) that makes it advantageous for buyers.

“After years of constrained conditions, the 2025 housing market is giving buyers something they haven’t had in a long time: options,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist, Realtor.com. “I expect this market momentum shift to magnify typical seasonal trends that favor homebuyers in the fall. During the week of October 12–18, data suggest that buyers will find more homes for sale, less competition from other shoppers, and potential average savings of more than $15,000 compared to this summer’s peak prices. In a year that’s been the most buyer-friendly in nearly a decade, it’s the best window of opportunity for homebuyers all year.”

Why Is Mid-October the Best Time to Buy?

For the first time in years, the housing market is showing signs of balance, creating a rare opportunity for buyers including:

Inventory peaks in early fall, and this year levels hit their highest since before the pandemic even ahead of cooler weather. During the “best week,” buyers can expect up to 32.6% more active listings than at the start of the year, plus a steady flow of fresh options—historically 15.7% more new listings than early-year conditions. With buyer demand tempered by affordability and higher mortgage rates, competition during this week is typically 30.6% lower than peak season, giving shoppers more breathing room.

Market pace and pricing are also more favorable. Homes are taking longer to sell, with October listings spending about two weeks more on market than during peak season—often prompting sellers to negotiate. Nationally, asking prices during the best week run about 3.4% below seasonal highs, translating to potential savings of more than $15,000 on a median-priced $439,450 home. October is also prime time for price cuts: roughly 5.5% of homes see reductions that week, and 2025 trends point to even more discounted listings.

The 2025 housing market has slowed compared to recent years, allowing inventory to accumulate and giving buyers more leverage. Active listings climbed above 1 million in late spring, a milestone not seen in years, and time on market has normalized to pre-pandemic levels. Elevated mortgage rates and stronger rental alternatives have kept some buyers on the sidelines, further reducing competition.

“While the market has not yet tipped into a full ‘buyer’s market,’ conditions are more balanced than they have been in years,” said Hale. “This represents a significant shift after a period of historically tight supply and intense competition that left many home shoppers priced out.”

Regional Highlights

The national “best week” of October 12–18 applies to many metro areas, but local markets show some variation:

  • Earlier Best Weeks: New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, Atlanta, and Dallas all see buyer-friendly conditions a few weeks earlier, often in September.
  • Aligned with National Timing: Large metros like Houston, Los Angeles, and Washington, D.C. mirror the national October timing.
  • Later Best Weeks: Florida markets, including Miami and Tampa, peak as late as December.

Across the 50 largest metros, 45 experience their best time to buy within a month of the national week. In metros aligned with October 12–18, buyers can expect 20.9% more listings, 37.3% less competition, and home prices 6.8% below peak levels compared to earlier in the year.

Best Time to Buy – Top 50 Largest Metro Areas

Metro (Alphabetical) Best Week Active Listings vs Avg Views Per Property vs Peak Days on Market vs Peak Median Listing Price vs Peak New Listings vs Avg Price Reductions vs Avg
United States October 12-18 +14.7 % -30.6 % +13 days -3.4 % -3.9 % 1.1 %
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA September 28 – October 4 15.9 % -35.1 % 13 -4.6 % 0.6 % 1.5 %
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos, TX September 28 – October 4 24.9 % -43.5 % 25 -6.6 % -6.5 % 2.4 %
Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD October 12 – 18 19.0 % -34.1 % 10 -5.1 % 6.3 % 1.5 %
Birmingham, AL October 19 – 25 11.8 % -30.0 % 19 -4.0 % -11.5 % 0.8 %
Boston-Cambridge-Newton, MA-NH October 26 – November 1 20.9 % -38.8 % 22 -6.1 % -8.7 % 1.7 %
Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY October 12 – 18 22.9 % -44.6 % 22 -8.0 % 2.1 % 1.3 %
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC November 2 – 8 18.2 % -37.8 % 16 -5.8 % -10.5 % 1.1 %
Chicago-Naperville-Elgin, IL-IN September 28 – October 4 17.1 % -33.8 % 10 -6.3 % -1.2 % 1.4 %
Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN October 12 – 18 21.4 % -31.2 % 11 -10.7 % 0.9 % 1.7 %
Cleveland, OH October 12 – 18 19.3 % -31.0 % 12 -8.8 % 7.2 % 1.8 %
Columbus, OH October 12 – 18 27.3 % -43.9 % 17 -10.3 % 4.0 % 2.5 %
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX September 28 – October 4 20.8 % -39.8 % 17 -6.9 % -0.8 % 2.1 %
Denver-Aurora-Centennial, CO October 12 – 18 32.4 % -46.4 % 21 -8.7 % -7.2 % 2.9 %
Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI October 12 – 18 21.0 % -44.4 % 13 -9.9 % 3.8 % 1.6 %
Grand Rapids-Wyoming-Kentwood, MI September 28 – October 4 29.0 % -37.6 % 15 -7.9 % 12.5 % 2.0 %
Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT September 21 – 27 15.8 % -33.5 % 21 -7.0 % -3.1 % 1.1 %
Houston-Pasadena-The Woodlands, TX October 12 – 18 12.1 % -36.5 % 14 -4.3 % -2.9 % 1.2 %
Indianapolis-Carmel-Greenwood, IN October 26 – November 1 26.1 % -38.7 % 15 -9.6 % -10.6 % 2.1 %
Jacksonville, FL October 26 – November 1 16.7 % -42.7 % 17 -7.3 % -7.6 % 1.1 %
Kansas City, MO-KS October 12 – 18 21.4 % -29.6 % 11 -9.0 % 3.1 % 1.6 %
Las Vegas-Henderson-North Las Vegas, NV October 5 – 11 15.9 % -43.2 % 11 -4.7 % 3.9 % 2.0 %
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA October 12 – 18 15.0 % -38.8 % 11 -5.6 % -0.1 % 1.3 %
Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN November 2 – 8 22.5 % -35.0 % 13 -9.4 % -4.5 % 1.6 %
Memphis, TN-MS-AR September 21 – 27 14.1 % -29.7 % 12 -4.7 % 1.1 % 1.3 %
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-West Palm Beach, FL November 30 – December 6 8.7 % -35.2 % 13 -3.7 % -6.0 % 0.6 %
Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI September 7 – 13 15.8 % -33.9 % 8 -7.0 % 23.1 % 1.4 %
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI October 26 – November 1 22.3 % -37.9 % 17 -9.7 % -18.0 % 1.9 %
Nashville-Davidson–Murfreesboro–Franklin, TN October 12 – 18 21.9 % -35.1 % 13 -5.4 % 4.4 % 1.5 %
New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ September 14 – 20 9.4 % -26.7 % 18 -2.8 % 6.3 % 0.7 %
Oklahoma City, OK October 12 – 18 16.3 % -33.2 % 11 -6.0 % -1.9 % 1.9 %
Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL October 26 – November 1 14.4 % -39.3 % 13 -4.0 % -7.1 % 0.9 %
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD September 7 – 13 10.2 % -28.6 % 12 -3.8 % 21.0 % 0.8 %
Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ November 2 – 8 18.3 % -39.6 % 10 -5.4 % 19.1 % 1.1 %
Pittsburgh, PA October 12 – 18 17.5 % -31.5 % 12 -7.2 % 7.3 % 1.5 %
Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA October 26 – November 1 18.6 % -41.9 % 28 -4.3 % 33.4 % 0.8 %
Providence-Warwick, RI-MA October 19 – 25 21.1 % -32.1 % 11 -4.8 % -1.2 % 1.6 %
Raleigh-Cary, NC October 12 – 18 23.5 % -37.0 % 17 -5.1 % 0.4 % 2.1 %
Richmond, VA October 26 – November 1 16.8 % -33.6 % 12 -6.8 % 0.5 % 1.1 %
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA September 28 – October 4 15.6 % -39.4 % 12 -2.3 % 3.3 % 1.3 %
Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA October 12 – 18 24.6 % -44.7 % 17 -5.4 % 8.9 % 1.9 %
San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX October 12 – 18 17.6 % -36.5 % 15 -5.4 % 1.5 % 1.6 %
San Diego-Chula Vista-Carlsbad, CA October 12 – 18 17.7 % -41.1 % 12 -6.5 % -0.3 % 1.5 %
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA October 12 – 18 30.8 % -45.8 % 14 -7.0 % 8.1 % 1.9 %
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA October 19 – 25 19.4 % -46.6 % 20 -8.6 % -15.6 % 1.8 %
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA October 19 – 25 33.7 % -53.3 % 22 -7.9 % 23.5 % 1.4 %
St. Louis, MO-IL October 12 – 18 15.9 % -28.0 % 11 -4.9 % 5.1 % 1.7 %
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL November 30 – December 6 15.3 % -44.8 % 19 -5.0 % -11.1 % 0.4 %
Tucson, AZ October 12 – 18 18.8 % -34.2 % 7 -4.6 % 7.1 % 1.6 %
Virginia Beach-Chesapeake-Norfolk, VA-NC September 21 – 27 13.9 % -30.8 % 13 -3.3 % 4.7 % 1.4 %
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV October 12 – 18 21.6 % -36.1 % 11 -5.3 % 1.8 % 1.6 %

 

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