Q: What economic trends do you expect will impact your business in 2025?
Randy Grudzinski
Partner & Head of Capital Markets
Empire Group of Companies
Sector: Commercial Real Estate
When it comes to new homebuyers, end of year 2025 30-year mortgage-rate expectations from the leading groups in this field really don’t signal that much relief is on the way. The Mortgage Bankers Association has EOY 2025 rates pegged at 5.8% (and holding steady in 2026). This means that more people will have to rent vs buy for at least the next several years, pending some type of unforeseen collapse in home prices — which practically no one is expecting to happen.
The impact of higher interest rates and tighter credit continues to have an impact on new multifamily permits, which are down ± 50% year over year. This, combined with record absorption, is helping to raise multifamily investor sentiment. Although the Phoenix market is currently dealing with an oversupply of residential rental units, which in turn is impeding rent growth, record absorption and substantially reduced permits is setting the stage for an eventual, and perhaps dramatic, rebound. We just don’t know whether this rebound will commence later in 2025 or at some point in 2026. That answer will, ultimately, be determined by the economy, including continued population growth, job growth and the high cost of for-sale housing. At Empire, we feel very good about the seeds that we are planting today that will bear fruit two to three years from now when another multifamily shortage may once again be upon us.
Randy Grudzinski is a partner at the Empire Group of Companies, one of Phoenix Metro’s largest apartment and single-family build-to-rent developers, with more than $3 billion of assets in various stages of development and completion. Grudzinski is a High Honors graduate of the JL Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University as well as a graduate of DePauw University and the London School of Economics.
Robert Mayer
Owner & Founder
Arizona Party Bike
Sector: Experience Tourism
I expect continued softening in the Scottsdale tourism and hospitality industry in 2025 compared to previous years, and local consumers continuing to be price-sensitive and value-conscious. “Luxury” customers with high disposable income remain strong, and more moderate-income groups like young professionals are pulling back spending. While we see continued growth in business travel and meetings, there is a new trend of looking at accommodations and activities that are more budget-conscious than in previous years.
At Arizona Party Bike, we are adapting for 2025 by creating new, memorable experiences for people to enjoy with their friends, families and co-workers that don’t break the bank. This month, we are launching a new Holiday Lights Tour in Old Town, and in the spring, a new Spring Training Pre-Game Bar Crawl to enjoy before each game. We re-launched our downtown Phoenix location, bringing our unique experience closer to the rest of the Valley. We also now offer holiday parties and fun, competitive scavenger hunts for company team builders of up to 200 people that have proven to be a hit!
Robert Mayer is the owner and founder of Arizona Party Bike, which has grown over the last decade into one of the Valley’s top activities for tourists and locals alike, serving more than 60,000 guests each year. Arizona Party Bike was named the fourth most popular experience in the country by Tripadvisor in 2023, with more than 8000 reviews, and is consistently ranked the No. 1 activity in Scottsdale and Phoenix for special occasions such as birthday parties, bachelor and bachelorette parties, and company events.
Whitney Yates-Woods
Dealer Principal
Yates Buick GMC
Sector: Automobile
The automotive industry is dynamic and closely tied to broader economic trends. As we look ahead to 2025, several factors are likely to shape our business. First, interest rates will play a critical role. With potential stabilization or modest decreases in rates, consumer confidence in vehicle financing could strengthen, encouraging more buyers to upgrade or purchase new vehicles. Another trend is the continued shift toward electric and hybrid vehicles, driven by evolving consumer preferences and government incentives. Yates Buick GMC and Yates Mitsubishi are committed to meeting this demand by expanding our inventory of EVs and providing customers with the information and support they need to transition to sustainable driving options.
Supply chain improvements, following the challenges of recent years, are also expected to enhance vehicle availability, reducing wait times and improving customer satisfaction. Finally, we anticipate that rising household incomes and a resilient job market will support consistent demand. Luckily, we’re prepared to adapt to these trends, ensuring we deliver exceptional service and innovative vehicles to our customers.
Whitney Yates-Woods is dealer principal of family-owned Yates Buick GMC in Goodyear. Yates Buick GMC has been serving the Phoenix metropolitan area for more than 37 years. The care we provide customers is based on the belief that every customer deserves the very best care. On top of being a long-standing fixture in the community with several repeat customers over the years, Yates Buick GMC is also innovative. We have eliminated negotiating tactics and offer a one-price guarantee. This helps take the stress out of purchasing a new vehicle.
