U.S. Annual Home Price Growth at a Record 18% in October, Says Report

Monthly home price gains slow to 1.3% in October from 2.3% peak in April

CoreLogic

CoreLogic, a leading global property information, analytics and data-enabled solutions provider, today released the CoreLogic Home Price Index (HPI) and HPI Forecast for October 2021.

U.S. annual home price growth remained strong at 18% in October, the highest recorded in the 45-year history of the index. Nonetheless, monthly price growth has slowed from its April peak and signals a moderation in price growth that the CoreLogic HPI Forecast projects will continue to slow in coming months.

Despite affordability challenges, a recent CoreLogic consumer survey shows that over half of respondents across every age cohort said that owning a home has always been a goal of theirs — further supporting the outlook that consumer desire for homeownership remains.

“New household formation, investor purchases and pandemic-related factors driving demand for the limited supply of available for-sale homes continues to propel the upward spiral of U.S. home prices,” said Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic. “However, we expect home price growth to moderate over the near term as many buyers take a break for the holidays.”

Top Takeaways:

  • Nationally, home prices increased 18% in October 2021, compared to October 2020. On a month-over-month basis, home prices increased by 1.3% compared to September 2021.
  • In October, appreciation of detached properties (19.5%) was 6.6 percentage points higher than that of attached properties (12.9%).
  • Home price gains are projected to slow to a 2.5% annual increase by October 2022 as affordability and economic concerns deter some potential buyers and additional for-sale inventory becomes available.
  • In October, home prices continued to rise sharply in Twin Falls, Idaho, which logged the highest year-over-year increase at 35.8%. For the first time in 2021, Florida made it to the top of the list for home price gains, with Naples logging the second-highest ranking at a 33.5% year-over-year increase.
  • At the state level, the Mountain West continued to dominate the top spots, with Arizona and Idaho again leading the way with the strongest price growth at 28.8% and 28.7%, respectively, and Utah ranking third at 24.5%.

“Single-family detached houses remain the preferred home for buyers during the pandemic,” said Dr. Frank Nothaft, chief economist at CoreLogic. “This is reflected in the 19.5% annual price rise for detached houses, which marks another record-high for the CoreLogic Home Price Index.”

The next CoreLogic HPI press release, featuring November 2021 data, will be issued on January 4, 2022, at 8 a.m. ET.

CoreLogic_Figure-1- National Home Price Change Forecast
CoreLogic Table 1 Percent Change Market Condition By Metro
CoreLogic Table 2 Market Risk Indicators

Methodology

The CoreLogic HPI is built on industry-leading public record, servicing and securities real-estate databases and incorporates more than 45 years of repeat-sales transactions for analyzing home price trends. Generally released on the first Tuesday of each month with an average five-week lag, the CoreLogic HPI is designed to provide an early indication of home price trends by market segment and for the “Single-Family Combined” tier, representing the most comprehensive set of properties, including all sales for single-family attached and single-family detached properties. The indices are fully revised with each release and employ techniques to signal turning points sooner. The CoreLogic HPI provides measures for multiple market segments, referred to as tiers, based on property type, price, time between sales, loan type (conforming vs. non-conforming) and distressed sales. Broad national coverage is available from the national level down to ZIP Code, including non-disclosure states.

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