Q1 Arizona Economic Insights Findings Released, Likely Higher Risks Seen for Q2

inbusinessPHX.com

The Greater Phoenix Chamber and BOK Financial have released the First Quarter Arizona Economic Insights Dashboard findings. This enhanced tool provides access to real-time, interactive data updates on Arizona’s ever-changing economic landscape. The public can access detailed insights into key indicators such as unemployment, GDP, job projections, population changes, average income, educational attainment, housing data, and more.

“The first quarter of 2025 continued a string of positive economic data points in Arizona and the Phoenix metro,” said Steve Wyett, chief investment strategist of BOK Financial. “The volatility of the second quarter is yet to be reflected in any of the primary data but, we know sentiment surveys for businesses and consumers declined appreciably. This means the risks to second quarter growth are a bit higher, yet the Arizona economy is entering this period of heightened uncertainty from a strong position. The risks of an overall slowdown in the U.S. economy have risen but a recession is not a foregone conclusion.”

Q1 economic data findings include:

Jobs:

  • Arizona ranked 1st for job growth between March 2025 and April 2025 with 14,200 new jobs, a 0.44% change.
  • Arizona ranked 36th for year-on-year job growth, from April 2024 to April 2025, with 24,600 new jobs, a 0.76% change.

GDP in Arizona:

  • Arizona’s current GDP All Industry Total is $563.19 billion as of quarter 4 2024. That is a 1.36% change from the previous quarter. This compares to a 1.19% change nationwide across the same quarter.
  • As of quarter 4 2024, Construction makes up 6.46% of Arizona’s GDP, at $36.36 billion. This is a 0.92% change from the previous quarter. This compares to the USA, where Construction makes up 4.49% of GDP, at $1.33 trillion with a 1.10% change from the previous quarter.
  • As of quarter 4 2024, Finance and Insurance makes up 6.70% of Arizona’s GDP, at $37.71 billion. This is a 2.73% change from the previous quarter. This compares to the USA, where Finance and Insurance makes up 7.53% of GDP, at $2.24 trillion with a 2.38% change from the previous quarter.
  • As of quarter 4 2024, Health care and social assistance makes up 8.71% of Arizona’s GDP, at $49.06 billion. This is a 2.33% change from the previous quarter. This compares to the USA, where Health care and social assistance makes up 7.64% of GDP, at $2.27 trillion with a 1.76% change from the previous quarter.
  • As of quarter 4 2024, Information makes up 3.13% of Arizona’s GDP, at $17.65 billion. This is a 0.92% change from the previous quarter. This compares to the USA, where Information makes up 5.38% of GDP, at $1.60 trillion with a 0.94% change from the previous quarter.
  • As of quarter 4 2024, Manufacturing makes up 8.28% of Arizona’s GDP, at $46.63 billion. This is a 0.78% change from the previous quarter. This compares to the USA, where Manufacturing makes up 9.88% of GDP, at $2.94 trillion with a 0.41% change from the previous quarter.

Inflation:

  • The annual inflation rate for Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale was 1.80% for the 12 months ending in February, compared to the US city average at 2.82%.

Unemployment and Hiring:

  • Arizona’s latest unemployment rate is 4.10% in April 2025, compared to 4.20% in the US (seasonally adjusted).

Job Changes

  • In March, the hiring rate in Arizona was 3.60%, while the national rate was 3.40%.
  • Arizona job openings saw a decrease of -0.20% to 5.00% in March, while the U.S. saw a decrease of -0.20% to 4.30% over the same period.
  • In March, the total separations rate in Arizona was 3.40%, while the national rate was 3.20%.
  • In March, the quit rate in Arizona was 2.00%, while the national rate was 2.10%.

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