Inflation Shows Signs That It Is Cooling

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.4 percent in October on a
seasonally adjusted basis, the same increase as in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 7.7 percent before seasonal
adjustment.

The index for shelter contributed over half of the monthly all items increase, with the indexes for
gasoline and food also increasing. The energy index increased 1.8 percent over the month as the
gasoline index and the electricity index rose, but the natural gas index decreased. The food index
increased 0.6 percent over the month with the food at home index rising 0.4 percent.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, after rising 0.6 percent
in September. The indexes for shelter, motor vehicle insurance, recreation, new vehicles, and
personal care were among those that increased over the month. Indexes which declined in October
included the used cars and trucks, medical care, apparel, and airline fares indexes.

The all items index increased 7.7 percent for the 12 months ending October, this was the smallest
12-month increase since the period ending January 2022. The all items less food and energy index
rose 6.3 percent over the last 12 months. The energy index increased 17.6 percent for the 12 months
ending October, and the food index increased 10.9 percent over the last year; all of these
increases were smaller than for the period ending September. 

Food

The food index increased 0.6 percent in October following a 0.8-percent increase in September. The
food at home index rose 0.4 percent in October, the smallest monthly increase in this index since
December 2021. Four of the six major grocery store food group indexes increased over the month. The
index for other food at home increased 0.9 percent in October, after rising 0.5 percent in
September. The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs rose 0.6 percent over the month while the
index for cereals and bakery products increased 0.8 percent in October. The index for nonalcoholic
beverages rose 0.5 percent in October, after rising 0.6 percent last month. 

In contrast, the index for fruits and vegetables fell 0.9 percent over the month after increasing
1.6 percent in September. The index for fresh fruits fell 2.4 percent and the index for fresh
vegetables fell 0.5 percent. The index for dairy and related products also declined in October,
falling 0.1 percent.

The food away from home index rose 0.9 percent in October, as it did in August and September. The
index for full service meals increased 1.1 percent and the index for limited service meals
increased 0.8 percent over the month. 

The food at home index rose 12.4 percent over the last 12 months. The index for cereals and bakery
products increased 15.9 percent over the year and the index for dairy and related products rose
15.5 percent. The remaining major grocery store food groups posted increases ranging from 8.0
percent (meats, poultry, fish, and eggs) to 15.4 percent (other food at home).

The index for food away from home rose 8.6 percent over the last year. The index for full service
meals rose 9.0 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for limited service meals rose 7.1
percent over the same period. 

Energy

The energy index increased 1.8 percent in October after falling in the preceding three months. The
gasoline index rose 4.0 percent over the month, also following three consecutive declines. (Before
seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 3.1 percent in October.) The electricity index also
increased over the month, rising 0.1 percent. However, the index for natural gas decreased in
October, falling 4.6 percent after increasing 2.9 percent in September.

The energy index rose 17.6 percent over the past 12 months. The gasoline index increased 17.5
percent over the span and the fuel oil index rose 68.5 percent. The index for electricity rose
14.1 percent over the last 12 months, and the index for natural gas increased 20.0 percent over the
same period.

All items less food and energy

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.3 percent in October, following a 0.6-percent
increase in September. The shelter index continued to increase, rising 0.8 percent in October, the
largest monthly increase in that index since August 1990. The rent index rose 0.7 percent over the
month, and the owners' equivalent rent index rose 0.6 percent. The index for lodging away from
home increased 4.9 percent in October, after declining 1.0 percent in September. 

The shelter index was the dominant factor in the monthly increase in the index for all items less
food and energy; other components were a mix of increases and declines. Among the indexes that
rose in October was the index for motor vehicle insurance which rose 1.7 percent in October after
rising 1.6 percent in September. The index for recreation rose 0.7 percent over the month, following
a smaller 0.1-percent increase in the previous month. The new vehicles index increased 0.4 percent
in October, and the personal care index rose 0.5 percent.

In contrast, the medical care index fell 0.5 percent in October after rising 0.8 percent in
September. The index for hospital and related services decreased 0.2 percent over the month, and
the index for prescription drugs declined 0.1 percent. The index for physicians' services was
unchanged in October. 

Other indexes which declined over the month include the index for used cars and trucks, which fell
2.4 percent in October after decreasing 1.1 percent in September. The apparel index fell 0.7 percent
over the month, after declining 0.3 percent the previous month. The index for airline fares fell 1.1
percent in October, following a 0.8-percent increase in September. The index for household
furnishings and operations was unchanged over the month.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 6.3 percent over the past 12 months. The shelter
index increased 6.9 percent over the last year, accounting for over 40 percent of the total increase
in all items less food and energy. Other indexes with notable increases over the last year include
medical care (+5.0 percent), household furnishings and operations (+8.4 percent), new vehicles (+8.4
percent), and personal care (+6.4 percent). 

Not seasonally adjusted CPI measures

The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 7.7 percent over the last 12
months to an index level of 298.012 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent
prior to seasonal adjustment.  

The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) increased 7.9 percent
over the last 12 months to an index level of 293.003 (1982-84=100). For the month, the index
increased 0.4 percent prior to seasonal adjustment.  

The Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U) increased 7.5 percent over the
last 12 months. For the month, the index increased 0.4 percent on a not seasonally adjusted basis.
Please note that the indexes for the past 10 to 12 months are subject to revision.