Home Price Declines Signal Power Swing Toward Buyers

inbusinessPHX.com

The median home-sale price fell in 14 of the 50 most populous U.S. metro areas this week, according to a new report from Redfin, the real estate brokerage powered by Rocket. Oakland, CA saw the biggest drop, with a 6.8% year-over-year decline, followed by two Florida metros and two Texas metros: West Palm Beach (-4.9%), Jacksonville (-3.1%), Austin (-2.9%) and Houston (-2.8%).

Prices are falling in several metro areas because the housing market is slow due to high housing costs and economic uncertainty, with homes taking longer to sell than a year ago in every major metro, and more home sellers than buyers in much of the country. In West Palm Beach, for instance, the typical home that went under contract during the four weeks ending July 27 took 93 days to do so, the longest period of all the metros in this analysis and up 18 days from a year earlier. Pending home sales are down 1.4% year over year in West Palm Beach, and supply is up 7.7%.

Nationwide, the median sale price rose 2% year over year to just shy of its record high. But that uptick is small compared to the 5% and 6% increases that were common in late 2024 and early 2025, and Redfin economists expect national prices to decline 1% annually by the end of this year.

The median U.S. asking price has already lost steam, dipping to its lowest level in five months this week and posting its smallest increase since February (except the prior 4-week period). That signals that more and more sellers are pricing their home lower from the start to meet buyers where they are in terms of price expectations. Monthly mortgage payments have lost steam, too, dipping to a median of $2,671 this week, the lowest level since January.

“Sellers need to start coming to terms with two things: One, homes are more often going to sit on the market for longer than a week or two before they sell, and two, buyers are gaining the upper hand,” said James Gulden, a Redfin Premier agent in Boston. “I advise my sellers to be realistic about the price they’re going to get based on the market research I provide, while also taking into account which direction the market is moving, especially if they want multiple offers. I’m also reminding sellers to be patient and not panic. Sure, many homes have been selling within a week for the last several years, but that’s not historically normal. They have to reorient themselves to the fact that it may take several weeks, or more, before receiving an acceptable offer.”

Pending U.S. home sales are down 1.4% from a year ago, while total inventory is up 8.9%. New listings are stagnant, up 0.6% year over year, as some would-be sellers opt to stay put rather than enter the buyer’s market.

Indicators of homebuying demand and activity

Value (if applicable)

Recent change

Year-over-year change

Daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

6.75% (July 30)

Up from 6.67% three weeks earlier

Down from 6.86%

Weekly average 30-year fixed mortgage rate

6.74% (week ending July 24)

Up from a 3-month low of 6.67% hit 3 weeks earlier

Down from 6.78%

Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)

Down 6% from a week earlier (as of week ending July 25)

Up 17%

Redfin Homebuyer Demand Index

Down 5% from a month earlier (as of week ending July 27)

Down 2%

Touring activity

Up 35% from the start of the year (as of July 28)

At this time last year, it was up 20% from the start of 2024

Metro-level highlights: Four weeks ending July 27, 2025

Metros with biggest year-over-year increases

Metros with biggest year-over-year decreases

Median sale price

Cleveland (15%)

Montgomery County, PA (9.2%)

Nassau County, NY (8.5%)

Detroit (6.9%)

Indianapolis (6.7%)

Oakland, CA (-6.8%)

West Palm Beach, FL (-4.9%)

Jacksonville, FL (-3.1%)

Austin, TX (-2.9%)

Houston (-2.8%)

Pending sales

Phoenix (13.3%)

Austin, TX (11.5%)

Virginia Beach, VA (9.4%)

Warren, MI (8.4%)

Milwaukee (7.9%)

Miami (-14.9%)

Tampa, FL (-13%)

Orlando, FL (-12%)

Portland, OR (-11.3%)

Las Vegas (-11%)

New listings

Seattle (16.2%)

Philadelphia (10.6%)

Montgomery County, PA (10.1%)

Cleveland (9.4%)

Minneapolis (7.7%)

Tampa, FL (-15.3%)

Portland, OR (-12.8%)

Jacksonville, FL (-12.1%)

Sacramento, CA (-12.1%)

Orlando, FL (-11%)

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