Fall Home Shoppers Find More Options amid Still-High Listing Prices, Phoenix Inventory Up 167%

“Home prices have been remarkably resilient so far this year, considering the impact that inflation and climbing rates are having on buyers’ budgets. Recent data does show some deceleration in listing prices, and a seasonal pull back that is typical of this time of year. On the flip side, this cooling is likely one reason why fewer sellers entered the market in September,” said Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for Realtor.com^®. “For homeowners deciding whether to make a move this year, remember that listing prices – while lower than a few months ago – remain higher than in prior years, so you’re still likely to find opportunities to cash-in on record-high levels of equity, particularly if you’ve owned your home for a longer period of time. And for prospective buyers grappling with affordability, you may have more bargaining power than you realize, particularly in areas where time on market is rising.”

September 2022 Housing Metrics – National

Inventory improvements hold steady even as new sellers hit pause

The U.S. supply of active listings remained higher than last year in September, but improvements failed to accelerate over last month as newly listed homes continued to drop. With higher rates resulting in less demand and fewer home sales, seller sentiment continues to decline and impact homeowner plans to list. Still, today’s buyers have significantly more options than during the worst of the inventory crunch of the previous two years. This is especially true in many southern and western markets, where competition has cooled compared to the COVID frenzy.

• Nationally, the inventory of homes actively for sale on a typical day in September increased 26.9% (+155,000) year-over-year, holding on par with the August pace (+26.9%). Newly-listed homes were down 9.8% year-over-year, a slight improvement over last month’s rate of decline (-13.0%).
• Compared to last year, inventory increased in 36 out of 50 of the largest metros, led by markets in the West (+64.2%) and South (+57.5%): Phoenix (+167.3%), Raleigh, N.C. (+166.1) and Nashville, Tenn. (+125.3%).
• In September, active listings dropped year-over-year in just one region, the Northeast (-6.0%). New listings declined from September 2021 levels in all four regions, led by the Northeast (-17.2%) and followed by the Midwest (-14.0%), West (-12.2%) and South (-3.9%).
• Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, just eight saw the number of new sellers increase over September 2021 levels: New Orleans (+119.3% as last year was impacted by Hurricane Ida), Nashville. (+19.6%), Tampa, Fla. (+9.2%), Dallas (+9.1%), Birmingham, Ala. (+6.1%), Houston (+3.6%), San Antonio (+2.9%) and Raleigh (+2.0%).

Home price growth continues to moderate but remains in the double-digits

In September, national home listing prices increased at a faster September pace than in any prior year in our data’s history, despite continuing to moderate from June’s peak growth rate. Driven by the combination of still-high listing prices and climbing mortgage rates, a typical monthly mortgage payment was 70% higher in September compared to a year ago. As a result of these cost pressures, recent home sales data indicates that some home shoppers are putting plans on pause, giving those who remained in the market more power to negotiate price reductions in September.

• The U.S. median listing price was $427,000, up 13.9% year-over-year. However, listing prices declined from June’s peak median ($449,000) and annual growth rate (+18.2%).
• Nationally, the share of homes having their price reduced grew to 19.5% from 11.0% last September, and also climbed higher than typical 2017 and 2019 levels (18.7%).
• Among the 50 largest U.S. metros, southern and midwestern markets (+11.8%, on average) led the charge in yearly listing price growth in September, with the biggest increases registered in Miami (+28.3%), Memphis, Tenn. (+27.3%), and Milwaukee (+27.0%). Listing prices declined in just two markets: New Orleans (-2.3%) and Pittsburgh (-0.8%).
• Western metros posted the biggest gains in the share of listings with price reductions, led by Phoenix (+32.3 percentage points), Austin, Texas (+27.4 percentage points) and Las Vegas(+20.0 percentage points).

Time on market remains higher than last year but is still historically-fast
In September, a typical home spent more days on market than last year, after first hitting that milestone just last month. As inventory continues to rise this fall compared to last year, homebuyers have relatively more breathing room to make decisions. This was true of September time on market trends nationwide, as well as in all four regions and in the vast majority of U.S. metros. However, compared to historical norms in prior years, homes continue to sell at a faster pace so far in 2022.

• The typical U.S. home spent 50 days on the market in September, up seven days year-over-year compared to an annual increase of four days in August, which marked the first increase since the early days of COVID. Nonetheless, time on market was still 18 days faster than the typical September 2017-2019 pace.
• Homes spent longer on the market than last year across regions: The West, up 10 days; the South, up six days; the Northeast, up five days; and the Midwest, up five days.
• Relative to the national pace, time on market slowed similarly across the 50 largest U.S. metros, on average, up seven days year-over-year to a median of 43 days. Among these markets, the biggest yearly time on market increases were in Austin (+23 days), Raleigh (+23 days), Phoenix (+17 days) and Las Vegas (+17 days).
• In September, homes sold more quickly than last year in just five metros: New Orleans (-9 days, again reflecting the impact of Hurricane Ida last year), Richmond, Va. (-6 days), Miami (-2 days), Atlanta (-1 days) and Houston (-1 day).