Record Share of Homebuyers Relocating, Many Are Coming to Phoenix

A record 33.9% of Redfin.com users nationwide looked to move from one metro to another in July and August, according to a new report from Redfin, the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That’s up from 32.6% in the second quarter and about 26% before the pandemic.

The U.S. housing market has slowed considerably from the height of the pandemic homebuying frenzy, and home sales are down 20% from a year ago. But the share of relocating buyers out of all buyers is at its highest level since at least 2017, when Redfin started tracking migration data.

“The overall slowdown and the popularity of relocating are both due to high home prices and mortgage rates that have doubled since last year,” said Redfin Deputy Chief Economist Taylor Marr. “Six percent mortgage rates are exacerbating already-high home prices and motivating homebuyers–especially remote workers–to leave expensive areas for more affordable ones. Persistent inflation and slumping stocks are also cutting into buyers’ budgets, making relatively affordable areas even more attractive.”

Homebuyers are leaving expensive coastal areas at higher rates than a year ago

More homebuyers left the Bay Area than any other metro in July and August. That’s determined by net outflow, a measure of how many more Redfin.com users looked to leave a metro than move in. Next come Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Boston, all expensive job centers highly populated by remote workers with the flexibility to relocate.

Migration out of four of those five places–Los Angeles, New York, Washington, D.C. and Boston–increased from a year earlier. That’s partly because of high mortgage rates and economic woes, including inflation, making it more difficult to afford homes in those places.

The number of homebuyers looking to move out of the Bay Area declined, likely because it’s one of the only parts of the U.S. where home prices are dropping year over year, giving buyers in the perennially expensive area a bit of relief. Prices fell 8% year over year in San Francisco, 1.6% in Oakland and 0.2% in San Jose.

Top 10 Metros by Net Outflow of Users and Their Top Destinations
Rank	Metro*	Net Outflow, July and August 2022^†	Net Outflow, July and August 2021	Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, July and August 2022	Portion of Local Users Searching Elsewhere, July and August 2021	Top Destination	Top Out-of-State Destination
1	San Francisco, CA	40,432	52,854	24.1%	25.2%	Sacramento, CA	Seattle, WA
2	Los Angeles, CA	34,832	30,754	20.0%	18.1%	San Diego, CA	Las Vegas, NV
3	New York, NY	26,786	25,725	28.7%	27.3%	Philadelphia, PA	Philadelphia, PA
4	Washington, DC	20,542	16,405	17.7%	15.1%	Salisbury, MD	Salisbury, MD
5	Boston, MA	11,543	9,253	19.8%	16.8%	Portland, ME	Portland, ME
6	Chicago, IL	6,883	5,504	16.6%	12.3%	Los Angeles, CA	Los Angeles, CA
7	Detroit, MI	5,330	3,300	34.4%	28.2%	Cleveland, OH	Cleveland, OH
8	Seattle, WA	4,143	3,766	17.1%	14.5%	Los Angeles, CA	Los Angeles, CA
9	Minneapolis, MN	3,740	1,777	31.0%	21.8%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
10	Denver, CO	3,739	4,662	24%	20.1%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in July and August 2022 †Among the two million users sampled for this analysis only

Warm Sun Belt metros are most popular for relocating homebuyers

Miami was the most popular migration destination, continuing a year-plus streak of the South Florida metro taking the number-one spot. Popularity is measured by net inflow, or how many more Redfin.com users looked to move into an area than leave.

Next come two California metros: Sacramento, perennially popular for homebuyers moving from one metro to another, and San Diego, which only recently jumped onto the list of most popular destinations. Las Vegas and Tampa, FL round out the top five. They’re followed by Phoenix, Cape Coral, FL, North Port, FL, Portland, ME and San Antonio, TX.

Nine of the 10 most popular destinations are warm-weather metros located in the Sun Belt (Portland is the exception). Eight of the 10 have median sale prices below $500,000; Sacramento ($570,000) and San Diego ($800,000) are the exceptions. And six of them are located in places with no state income tax, which lowers the overall cost of living. Although home prices in many of the popular destinations have increased significantly throughout the pandemic, they’re still more affordable than the places homebuyers are coming from. The typical home in Las Vegas, for instance, sold for $416,000 in August, half of the $845,000 median in Los Angeles, the number-one origin for people moving in.

Top 10 Metros by Net Inflow of Users and Their Top Origins
Rank	Metro*	Net Inflow, July and August 2022^†	Net Inflow, July and August 2021	Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, July and August 2022	Portion of Searches from Users Outside the Metro, July and August 2021	Top Origin	Top Out-of-State Origin
1	Miami, FL	8,845	10,435	33.2%	33.1%	New York, NY	New York, NY
2	Sacramento, CA	8,504	8,327	43.9%	42.1%	San Francisco, CA	Reno, NV
3	San Diego, CA	7,811	3,598	33.6%	28.4%	Los Angeles, CA	Seattle, WA
4	Las Vegas, NV	7,323	6,739	47.2%	41.8%	Los Angeles, CA	Los Angeles, CA
5	Tampa, FL	7,145	6,240	48.1%	46.9%	Orlando, FL	New York, NY
6	Phoenix, AZ	6,447	8,411	36.0%	35.4%	Los Angeles, CA	Los Angeles, CA
7	Cape Coral, FL	4,951	4,234	68.5%	69.4%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
8	North Port, FL	4,700	3,983	67.3%	67.8%	Chicago, IL	Chicago, IL
9	Portland, ME	3,876	3,692	64.9%	65.2%	Boston, MA	Boston, MA
10	San Antonio, TX	3,235	4,396	38.9%	42.0%	Austin, TX	Los Angeles, CA
*Combined statistical areas with at least 500 users in July and August 2022 †Negative values indicate a net outflow; among the two million users sampled for this analysis only